More than 20 days have passed, and Israel has launched a retaliatory strike against Iran, as it had long pledged to do. In the early hours of October 26, local time, the Israeli Air Force conducted airstrikes on dozens of strategic targets within Iran, reportedly including missile factories, drone development and production facilities, and missile launch sites.
As tensions continue to escalate in the Middle East, many are left wondering whether Iran will respond to this latest Israeli offensive. Will the explosions that reverberated from Tehran ignite a new crisis in the region? To delve deeper into these questions, we spoke with Li Xinggang, a researcher from the Mediterranean Research Institute at Zhejiang International Studies University, and Dong Manyuan, an expert on Middle Eastern affairs.
Following the Israeli military’s three-wave strikes, they announced the operation’s conclusion. Reports from Israeli and U.S. media indicate that the first wave targeted Iran’s air defense systems, while subsequent waves focused on Iran’s missile and drone facilities.
“Israel has publicly stated its intent to retaliate against Iran. If it doesn’t respond for too long, it would weaken the Netanyahu government’s stability and fail to deter the anti-Israel coalition in the region,” Li noted. “Therefore, they chose this moment to take action.”
Dong observed that Israel aimed to avoid full-scale war with Iran while also considering its relationship with the U.S. The military targets selected are equivalent to those Iran struck against Israel on October 1, both in terms of scope and impact.
According to Li, “This Israeli strike appears to be a constrained military action. It did not target Iran’s nuclear facilities or energy supply chains. The fact that both sides are only hitting military objectives reduces the likelihood of an escalation in conflict.”
As for Iran’s potential response, a source indicated on October 26 that Iran is prepared to retaliate against what it sees as Israeli aggression. Reports suggest that Iran’s military has devised “at least ten different plans” should Israel take further military action.
“Iran will assess the damage inflicted by Israel’s strikes,” Li stated.
Recent updates indicate that Iranian Revolutionary Guard bases in western and southwestern Tehran were not hit, and some of the reported explosions were actually interceptions by Iranian air defense systems against the Israeli strikes.
Both experts agree that neither side is eager for escalating conflict. Li emphasized that Israel’s strikes were calculated, and the probability of Iran launching a large-scale missile attack is low. Dong noted two potential responses from Iran: to either remain silent or respond in kind, with the latter largely depending on the extent of the damage incurred from the Israeli assaults.
Interestingly, just days before Israel’s attacks, a social media account called “Middle East Observer” leaked alleged plans for Israel’s retaliation from a U.S. source, prompting the U.S. Department of Defense to initiate an investigation. Speculations suggest that this leak might have been orchestrated or overlooked by the U.S.
In light of the strikes, Israel also informed the White House in advance. Following the attack, defense ministers from both the U.S. and Israel engaged in discussions.
Li analyzed this relationship, suggesting that the leak could have been intentional, as the U.S. aims to prevent an escalation of tensions. The U.S. and Israel share strategic interests regarding Iran, but the U.S. is also wary of a broader conflict ahead of its upcoming elections.
Dong asserted that the U.S. must maintain strong strategic ties with Israel while also signaling to Iran that it has no intention of engaging in comprehensive warfare. Iran, too, is reluctant to be dragged into a full-blown conflict, suggesting a mutual desire to avoid war.
As the turmoil in the Middle East persists, concerns grow about whether this could lead to widespread conflict, especially given the spillover effects of recent Israeli-Palestinian clashes. Li expressed that Israel’s recent actions only increase uncertainty in an already precarious situation, making it harder to de-escalate tensions.
“If Iran refrains from further retaliation, this round of hostilities between Israel and Iran could conclude,” Dong said, predicting that Israel may focus on its security agenda, aiming to resolve two primary issues: conducting final military operations in Gaza to eliminate Hamas and establishing a buffer zone in southern Lebanon to facilitate the return of residents.
